Dec 2020 - Wrapping up a crazy year

As the year comes to an end, and what an unusual year it has been, I find myself feeling pretty refreshed and intrigued by everything that had occurred. 

Investing wise I have learned many useful lessons which will stay with me for long. Breaking traditional wisdom and accepting changes/ truly embracing the meaning of life-long learning. It's like traditional wisdom and lessons / case studies still work but should not be taken as 100% gospel truth to be followed blindly, rather applying the theory and using it nimbly on current market and futures. Aswath Damodaran sums its up perfectly in his blog posts and videos that many "value investors" had become so enamored in their applications of the techniques that they missed out obvious trends. I am thankful to have chanced upon his sharing via internet early this year and learnt a great deal while dealing with the sell-down in March and subsequent challenge of allocating my cash in the mighty upswing that was in July - Nov 2020. 

I hope to apply all I have learnt and experienced in 2021. 

Work has been uneventful thus far (which is good), with a slightly minor note of joy. A slightly larger than usual increment thanks to being promoted help me financially and I felt relieved that I had move past the salary range I was stuck at previously. Nothing much to jump about as it is more of a "your time is up" kind of promotion versus the "we think you are good" which actually pisses me off. Anyway, I have been focused on growing my wealth instead of climbing the ladder since 2016, journey has been great thus far. 

Health and fitness wise this was not the better years, full of minor aliments here and there makes me feel like I am really aging. There were moments which I felt great after a good rest, when I could perform well on the court, but these were followed quickly by post-game aches and soreness. I need to recover from my ankle, shoulder cuff, and thumb injuries soon! 

On the topic of aging, I do feel that with diet, knowledge and better living conditions humans tend to be able to delay aging better compared to previous generations. At the rate I would think I will look younger than my dad did when he was 40. 

Met some interesting people during my social volunteering duties, with the most interesting one resulting from a wrong number call from a random kid. All I can say is life is so unexpected at times and the strangest of occasions will lead you to things you cannot imagine. 

Onward to 2021 ! Floor Level 37

2nd Week of April - Investing in Covid19

I need to keep reminding myself to blog down whatever details I could during this period of investment as I am certain that these would eventually be good learning points for the next crisis. Human memories are short and I probably have only one more chance at accumulation during my productive years. 

Having bought and sold several counters - total cash deployed over this period is about $19,000. 

When news of the Covid19 broke out, I am skeptical of how bad it would be, however to be safe and to ensure that in the event that if there are significant drawdowns which I could trade around I sold some counters which i felt would be dragging my performance, as well as took minor profits. The main goal was not to lock in profits but more to ensure that I have significant warchest. I was at 85% invested in early February. 

Actions taken: 
1) Sold FPL, Ausgroup, Areit, Astera V - Booked total lost of $6.7k from FPL and Ausgroup. Broke even on Astera / Areit

2) Using the cash I quickly made sure to redeploy into counters which I am still holding with stronger convictions - KDC, CRCT, AReit I call this "change horse" tactic. Rider must continue journey but the horse is tired, need to change the ride. Based on their respective drawdowns and projected rebound (to normal situation) and dividend - I foresee that this step is the right choice (time will tell if I made the right decision) 

3) This is the tricky part, another portion of my deployment from existing cash will be used to average down. Gotten Aims Reit, UMS and LL Reit

4) Bought counters at significant discount or for recovery play - Starhill, Ascendas I-Reit

Summary of Week 2 April 

Current state of portfolio is very heavy reits, I am targeting Wilmar / SATS and SMH however these have yet to reach my buy TP. They have shown resilience after the initial dive during early March and gradually recovered to a more palatable pricing. 
I have missed chance to accumulate Wilmar and SATS below $3 due to indecisiveness.. honestly I had a TP but when the moment came so quickly and impactful drop, I reconsidered and held back for couple of days.. then opportunity gone. 

have a plan - STICK TO IT. 

Summary of March Madness: Investing during Covid-19

The situation has been bad and it looks like it will remain bad. Prices across all markets had recover during the last week of March. This seem to be the textbook situation of the rubber band effect where big drops are usually followed up by a sharp rebound.

we can all agree that there will be several potential scenarios playing out from here on:

1. Recover to V shape - highly unlikely as main cause of the crash (lowered economic activity) has not been resolved. 
2. Maintain at current prices/ bottomed already - Due to the Fed and QE5 measures they had drawn up, all the world leaders are now in this "end game" mode. Hopefully, this mitigate the measures somewhat and by then a cure / solution will be found. 
3. Further dips - I am more inclined to think that further dips will happen. At least 1 more big dip. Whether it will dip beyond 2200 is anyone's guess my I think good opportunities awaits.

Actions

1. Take short term trading profits.
2. Trade around core position to keep lowering average prices for counters I hold
3. Buy when value emerge - Identify future proof companies (Semicon / Datacentre / Logistics / China Mid-class growth) 
4. Buy when extreme craziness appears, good yield on staples industry (Utilities / Basic consumers)
5. Put aside cigar butt investing for now (too risky) 

To be reviewed again in April.