Sunday, March 29, 2020

Summary of March Madness: Investing during Covid-19

The situation has been bad and it looks like it will remain bad. Prices across all markets had recover during the last week of March. This seem to be the textbook situation of the rubber band effect where big drops are usually followed up by a sharp rebound.

we can all agree that there will be several potential scenarios playing out from here on:


  1. Recover to V shape - highly unlikely as main cause of the crash (lowered economic activity) has not been resolved. 
  2. Maintain at current prices/ bottomed already - Due to the Fed and QE5 measures they had drawn up, all the world leaders are now in this "end game" mode. Hopefully, this mitigate the measures somewhat and by then a cure / solution will be found. 
  3. Further dips - I am more inclined to think that further dips will happen. At least 1 more big dip. Whether it will dip beyond 2200 is anyone's guess my I think good opportunities awaits.


Actions

  1. Take short term trading profits.
  2. Trade around core position to keep lowering average prices for counters I hold
  3. Buy when value emerge - Identify future proof companies (Semicon / Datacentre / Logistics / China Mid-class growth) 
  4. Buy when extreme craziness appears, good yield on staples industry (Utilities / Basic consumers)
  5. Put aside cigar butt investing for now (too risky) 

To be reviewed again in April.

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