This is mainly for self accountability. From now until 2030 I will try to keep a yearly EOY summary of what went right or wrong for the yearly investment, how to avoid similar mistakes and next FY planning and predictions.
Outline and Premise for 2024
SPY outperforms in longer timeframes of > 5 years against
dividend etfs – however how to address draw downs and cash balances while is on
bull up only market. Past 4 year had shown that barbell balancing high beta
assets like big tech with S-Reits provided 2x beta with ample flexibility. Target
to reduce drawdown phase via better profit taking methodology and
diversification into some uncorrelated assets.
Will be liquidating part of portfolio to pay for
downpayment- during re-establish of portfolio balance will be tilted to growth
and crypto. Prices had run up so much, 2024 should be net buyer of cash and
sreit wait for next drawdown to enter. (SPY4k/ for eg)
Summary
and Learning Points 2023
Bought Elite Commerical Reits due to seemingly high yield + UK gov tenant, using SG lens, however default occured and UK currency dip sharply due to the mismanagement. Must always invest with consideration of oversea geopolicatical and local unique economic situation.
Mis reentry into market low when I was trying to time SMH low entry again. During Oct there was bottom but was overseas. failure to set limit orders and get ready psychological buy in prices beforehand hurts even though i got the general idea correct. (Nv do homework)
Enter DTH in Jan 2023 - as "cash like" item (+4.7%), Entered $COIN in late Nov as BTC ETF proxy play (+30%), Entered TLT as Fed lowering interest rate 2024 (+4%) with higher potential in late 2024,
Overall portfolio return what it has lost in 2022, with some to spare. Total AUM ATH again at 273k. Yearly gain of $93,000 gains or about 50%. 2024 will focus on preserving the gains and minimizing volatility with >10% upside target. Overall 3.5 out of 5 star performance for this, need to work to reduce simple mistakes and improve sustainability of returns.
Bullish factors for 2024
Crypto halving, BTC ETF
Dovish fed – likely to drop at least 100bps in 2024.
If recession comes, high potential fed will cut rates fast.
Will injection be targeted or flows to equity markets?
Bearish factors for 2024
Historically there may be potential recession 12-18 mths
after rate hikes, but US presidential election year – which prevails? Or dump
after election?? What is best hedge method?
Lower inflation is due to reduced spending power or is it
really due to “transitory” factors? Again recessionary risks
2024 Action Plans &
Strategy
Fed rate to drop 1% - TLT will have slight upside but will
likely serve more as low vol item in portfolio with the underperformance vs
broad markets. It should still out perform cash. HOLD TLT
BTC ETF matter of time in Q1 – risk of non-approval in Jan
exhausted momentum
BTC April Halving – Look out for 30% declines *Diamond
Hands, before upcycle but beware of front running. (48-50k may have a drop) (HOLD BTC only DCA / ADD if S$36,000 or below)
$COIN - main beneficiary from all the institution custodial.
(HOLD)
Increase cash holdings to 25%
$MOAT – DCA 1 -5 share every dip
$TSLA – HOLD
Recession case – Fed
print money ? liquidity but to targeted areas (SVB case) but benefit big tech
and BTC again?
SPY had good run in
2023, but market has yet to broaden to IWM. Is there need to redeploy?
