Showing posts with label covid19. Show all posts
Showing posts with label covid19. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 7, 2020

2nd Week of April - Investing in Covid19

I need to keep reminding myself to blog down whatever details I could during this period of investment as I am certain that these would eventually be good learning points for the next crisis. Human memories are short and I probably have only one more chance at accumulation during my productive years. 

Having bought and sold several counters - total cash deployed over this period is about $19,000. 

When news of the Covid19 broke out, I am skeptical of how bad it would be, however to be safe and to ensure that in the event that if there are significant drawdowns which I could trade around I sold some counters which i felt would be dragging my performance, as well as took minor profits. The main goal was not to lock in profits but more to ensure that I have significant warchest. I was at 85% invested in early February. 

Actions taken: 
1) Sold FPL, Ausgroup, Areit, Astera V - Booked total lost of $6.7k from FPL and Ausgroup. Broke even on Astera / Areit

2) Using the cash I quickly made sure to redeploy into counters which I am still holding with stronger convictions - KDC, CRCT, AReit I call this "change horse" tactic. Rider must continue journey but the horse is tired, need to change the ride. Based on their respective drawdowns and projected rebound (to normal situation) and dividend - I foresee that this step is the right choice (time will tell if I made the right decision) 

3) This is the tricky part, another portion of my deployment from existing cash will be used to average down. Gotten Aims Reit, UMS and LL Reit

4) Bought counters at significant discount or for recovery play - Starhill, Ascendas I-Reit

Summary of Week 2 April 

Current state of portfolio is very heavy reits, I am targeting Wilmar / SATS and SMH however these have yet to reach my buy TP. They have shown resilience after the initial dive during early March and gradually recovered to a more palatable pricing. 
I have missed chance to accumulate Wilmar and SATS below $3 due to indecisiveness.. honestly I had a TP but when the moment came so quickly and impactful drop, I reconsidered and held back for couple of days.. then opportunity gone. 

have a plan - STICK TO IT. 

Sunday, March 29, 2020

Summary of March Madness: Investing during Covid-19

The situation has been bad and it looks like it will remain bad. Prices across all markets had recover during the last week of March. This seem to be the textbook situation of the rubber band effect where big drops are usually followed up by a sharp rebound.

we can all agree that there will be several potential scenarios playing out from here on:


  1. Recover to V shape - highly unlikely as main cause of the crash (lowered economic activity) has not been resolved. 
  2. Maintain at current prices/ bottomed already - Due to the Fed and QE5 measures they had drawn up, all the world leaders are now in this "end game" mode. Hopefully, this mitigate the measures somewhat and by then a cure / solution will be found. 
  3. Further dips - I am more inclined to think that further dips will happen. At least 1 more big dip. Whether it will dip beyond 2200 is anyone's guess my I think good opportunities awaits.


Actions

  1. Take short term trading profits.
  2. Trade around core position to keep lowering average prices for counters I hold
  3. Buy when value emerge - Identify future proof companies (Semicon / Datacentre / Logistics / China Mid-class growth) 
  4. Buy when extreme craziness appears, good yield on staples industry (Utilities / Basic consumers)
  5. Put aside cigar butt investing for now (too risky) 

To be reviewed again in April.

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