A Plan for 45 - Part 1

To be accountable, one needs to set goals and targets. 

So I would set the following general targets:

• Ability to retire or at reach a point where my income from non-work equates to $50,000 
• Own a "fun car" - yes two door sports coupes, no, it does not need to be crazy supercars (idm though)
• Fitness - At the very least able to maintain IPPT gold standards and keep bodyfat to 15% or less
• time to play basketball regularly 
• meet new people and read up new knowledge
• Stretch goal - move my furkids to a larger home where they get their own room. 

The above requires free TIME and that in itself requires MONEY to replace the WORK require to gain momentary freedom.

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Ok serious stuff. 

I am hitting 200k for my equities portfolio. Around 30% is allocated in dividend stocks and I think it serves to provide some income (dividend roots) and peace of mind. 50% in US stocks and etf comprising usual growth and tech stuff. Remainder is cash (Market ATH)  of around 15%.  

• I intend to dial back from equities investing once it reaches 200k. I will still invest, but at much lower rate
• Identify any investing opportunities and plonk sizable sums of $15,000 to $30,000 (this can be in anything from cryptos to MTG cards to collectible NFTs to business opportunities) 
• Slowly, during the course of the next 1-2 years allocate 10-15% (to be confirmed) of my total non residence networth into crypto as a form of hedge as protection. I have seen what happens in 2008-10 where all the prices soared and people were priced out of the markets from properties that doubled in few years. 
• Using my collection of Magic the Gathering cards as capital I shall also convert their value to cryptos. I will forever miss these babies but I cannot preserve their condition well due to the humid climate and lack of care and I no longer play. They do deserve to see some playlight all these legacy goodness. This will give me capital to rotate without risking new capital if BTC fails to hold its value. 
• Yearly capital injection to investing will target minimum $40,000 (up from $35,000) . I know this is peanuts to most people who are serious about FIRE but I prefer to live a little.

Short term wise, continue to accumulate cash for correction. Watch out for fed rates sudden hikes (unlikely) and BTFD whenever cryptos have a correction. 

Lets look back in few months' time!!

A Plan For 45 - Introduction

I turn 37 this year (2021) and I am currently a salaried employee in a (by public perception) comfortable though not glamourous (nor high income) job. 

I have worked for almost 15 years across several types of jobs but mainly in the professional development and adult learning areas. During my mid-twenties I had picked up investing via friend of mine as a way to boost income. My salary was considered below median for my age group back then in the country. measly $50,000 annual pay cheque for a 27 year old wasnt gonna cut it. 

Although not much by professional standards I have since dabbled in stocks, bonds and generally retail stuff for close to 10 years. It was not until 2 years ago that I started to develop a thirst for knowledge, partly after some chats with a friend who worked in an investment firm. I started to learn and try to incorporate concepts rather than "chase hot stocks" or "being a yield whore" Over the period and ongoing still, I am trying my best to incorporate the following into my decisions whenever I value an investment opportunity: 

• Portfolio allocation
• Risk management
• Recognizing the difference in retail vs institution (and making use of that advantage) 
• Country bias and advantages 

To that I would say that I did have some success in achieving risk adjusted returns. And thankfully, the last few years had been absolute blast for investors in general. 

Looking back at the opportunities that i missed and mistakes i made, i think the following struck: 

• Lack of due diligence which results in low conviction
• Fear of loss - could be due to the fact my savings were low and my humble family background 
• Both risk aversion and loss aversion resulted in selling winners and holding losers  
• But the worst was missing out epic opportunities when risk:reward ratio is so skewed due to above 3 mindset  

As I age toward 40s I realized time is precious (oh my basketball knees) and i do not want to spend precious moments slogging in the office. I do not mind having a job that I truly enjoy, either great work environment or meaningful / fun stuff. Time can be better spent maintaining fitness, with people I enjoy being around and playing games or watching anime. 

It is also opportune, that at this juncture in life, I feel that I have "stabilized" and could afford to take some risk. My total assets minus residence is now reaching half mil. The amount of capital that is required for life altering impact should any investment fail to work out is no longer significant to destroy what I have already established. I have also allocated enough cash locked in at 2.5% yield as backup for 5 years worth of my mortgage. All in all, so long I do not go "full retard" I can comfortably retire with a fully paid home by 55 (but fuck that) 

I will describe and log the plans for my own accountability so that I have no regrets when I reach there in 8 years time.

Mid August review of my portfolio, records of my recent actions and justifications.

 

First off, some rambling...

Between having a stable, meaningful dividend portfolio I also felt like I had to make up for lost time due to the relatively late start to savings and investment game. Starting from 2019, I have allocated a portion of my resources to start a position for growth. For now I am satisfied with the weightage, with my dividend: growth at 2:1 for the near term. (current ratio is at 4:1), progress is better than expected and I should be able to hit my near term portfolio aum goal earlier than planned.

Buy & Sell

I added some AIT due to the positive results, in hindsight I could have done a quick trade before adding again if I wished to once the excitement die down (locals are a forgetful bunch) but nonetheless I was too impatient and bought it at market price on opening. Mid-long term wise it is still a good purchase and I am looking forward to receiving meaningful income and expect its dpu growth.

Sold AEM after deliberating for a couple of days at 30% profit.  I didn’t get it cheap and although I may miss out on its potential splits / issues the recycling allows me to replenish some cash and this is key especially in frothy market conditions this year.

At the same time, I resisted selling UMS for its yield still falls within my acceptable range of >5%. Being a good year for semicon industry it should be able to provide great income for the upcoming year too. 

Opted for cash this time for CRCT due to the weightage in my portfolio plus I am having Lendlease reit too. Both are affected negatively by COVID-19 and I would expect the price to weaken, again replenish cash for deployment.

Initiated a small position in Brookfield Renewable Energy (BEP), it checks a few boxes of stable income, dpu growth, sustainable payout, and more importantly it is a hedge for the future trends which I identified as potential challenges for old world business (veganism/sustainability/animal cruelty/feminism/racism/sexuality orientation) Going forward, I would continue to identify business or themes which provides a natural hedge towards consumer and social trends changes for the foreseeable 20 years to future proof my portfolio. Sustainable energy is the first one which I felt is reasonably addressable from a business point of view, we shall see.

Portfolio review

Yield of portfolio has improved but still far from my target of 6.5% now that most stocks / reits have ran up due to the QEI I would either have to take more risk by entering subpar reits or buy beaten down industries and hope they survive (neither is a good idea) I am looking at some HYBs and if they provide at least 6% it may be a reasonable entry. Also this will serve to prevent such a big drawdown during the next blackswan (my portfolio got a -35% during the march period). I have also learnt the beauty of sustainable dividends vs purely high year to date dividends.

Thematic ETF play has been the new weapon of choice for me this year. It has absolutely outperformed the rest of my portfolio and my local market of cos I would underperform the Nasdaq and stock pickers for tech sector but being far from markets and without reliable network, I think thematic ETF play style is the most risk adjusted way to get alpha for myself. I just need to identify the trends, basic long term potential , all of which are more qualitative analysis and quantitative. I reduced the need for technical analysis to a bare minimum.