Summary of March Madness: Investing during Covid-19

The situation has been bad and it looks like it will remain bad. Prices across all markets had recover during the last week of March. This seem to be the textbook situation of the rubber band effect where big drops are usually followed up by a sharp rebound.

we can all agree that there will be several potential scenarios playing out from here on:

1. Recover to V shape - highly unlikely as main cause of the crash (lowered economic activity) has not been resolved. 
2. Maintain at current prices/ bottomed already - Due to the Fed and QE5 measures they had drawn up, all the world leaders are now in this "end game" mode. Hopefully, this mitigate the measures somewhat and by then a cure / solution will be found. 
3. Further dips - I am more inclined to think that further dips will happen. At least 1 more big dip. Whether it will dip beyond 2200 is anyone's guess my I think good opportunities awaits.

Actions

1. Take short term trading profits.
2. Trade around core position to keep lowering average prices for counters I hold
3. Buy when value emerge - Identify future proof companies (Semicon / Datacentre / Logistics / China Mid-class growth) 
4. Buy when extreme craziness appears, good yield on staples industry (Utilities / Basic consumers)
5. Put aside cigar butt investing for now (too risky) 

To be reviewed again in April.

My First Black Swan / Market Crash

What a week it has been for the stock markets worldwide. I feel like dedicating a post so future me will be able to judge how I have handled this event. 

It was known by Jan 2020 that the Covid-19 and the global economy wasnt good. I had plans to divest my holdings to a more diversified base with global etfs , thematic plays and more non-reits (take profit) but as usual the lack of TA and focus + hesitation made me act slow. Resulting in a -15% on portfolio not unlike the time in 2015 where I acted slow and news of rate increase by Fed had me seeing most of my holdings drop by a notch. 

One thing i did correctly was to amass a sizable (compared to my holdings) warchest that makes up 25% of the target this year by Dec 2019.

Actions taken / Out of Control Factors 

1. I took action decisively  once I realised that I needed sufficient ammo to average down/ ride the upswing for outsized returns and high yield on cost in near future. I sold Astera V bonds/ some of Ascendas Reits (still in green) and cut Ausgroup (speculative) for cash. 
2. As mentioned earlier- prepared warchest
3. Set aside - Performance Bonus for 2019. Honestly, was expecting zero PB this year but i guess in accounting terms its from the 2019 budget. However do expect no bonus for rest of this year. 
4. Promoted - well.. silver lining for 2020 is that I had gotten a promotion as well as 10% increment (very little lol). Unless the markets tank THAT badly (ie: ppty prices fall significantly), chances are my AUM will see an increase for 2020 from the sheer fact of 3) & 4) 

What's Next / Action to take 

I feel that this should be a classic "Black Swan" if you strip away all the emotions and hype. Market had been distorted from real ground sentiments since 2018 IIRC, so nobody should be really surprised.  My own greed has caused me to take unnecessary  losses from speculative positions (as always I find it hard to invest in bull market, should really just sit still, this is same for my basketball style)

Having amass almost 50% warchest I am in good position to deploy and ride the wave up. 

1) Buy high Alpha stocks - all stock will recover eventually, but blue chip and big names have the financial resources and ability to bounce back swifter. Buy those first as usually they arent cheap to buy. 

2) It is a good time to buy into super long term ETF such as Vwrd. 

3) Hold the losers, when rebounds come - sell them. 

4) Short list a few targets so that I can purchase a meaningful amount for each. 

5) prepare for rights issues / cash call. Dun be caught like many in 2015 !!!! Best chance to get Cheap Reits!!! 

6) Cut expenses - direct more to warchest 

Summary 

My 2020 networth goal might be affected pending the recover speed/timeframe. However short term goals stays the same. 

To the future me in 2 years time, good job, you have done well, and I have told you so right?

KEEP CALM AND CARRY (INVEST) ON!