Saturday, October 22, 2022

Updates on Investing

The bear market of 2022 continues and it looks like the Fed / US will carry on with further hikes at least until 1H of 2023 or until something breaks. 

Between 1 June till now I had sold: 

  • All remaining SMH @ around 200+ breaking even with small profit. 
  • Small bit of Tesla at around $269/share , small profit
  • All of Astera VII US Class B 6% Bonds, small profit.

The rationale is to hold cash for averaging down if needed, and to collect dividend stocks are depressed prices. A lesson learnt was to take some profits off the winning trades (especially so when profits hits >30%-50%) this will allow better redeployment of capital after the sell down or consolidation phases. 

Bought:

  • MLT 
  • Capland China Trust
  • FLCT 
  • Continue DCA small amounts to BTC 
Will continue to ride this market, slowly saving up more cash from regular income and buy sparingly if prices are good for reit and certain blue chips stocks.

This is a slower version of 2020, not as easy but it will prove to be fruitful and rewarding both monetarily and experience wise in the medium term (~5years) 


Monday, May 16, 2022

Great chance to add wealth - Bear of 2022

So the bear is real and it is upon us. Assets of all classes have pulled back significantly. 

My original plan of reaching 350k seem impossible right now, but definitely this will give me chance to add good assets at cheap valuations. I did felt that from 2021 onwards prices seemed very elevated and due to high inflation, investors were left with no alternatives (TINA)

The following are my presumptions for the bear market:

  • traditionally style bear (not like the 6-month hi-bye covid bear)
  • historically speaking whenever fed increase rates risk on assets tend to dip
  • US cant possibly ignore its own debt (or could it?), hence the higher interest has a limit
  • recession would come since not everyone recovered fully from Covid-19 impact
  • supply chain issues persists. Fed can only control demand not supply by its interest rates 
my action thus will be 
  • deploy my cash all the away to 0% , over the expected duration of 12 to 18 months at least
  • 30% BTC , 40% dividend stocks (cashflow high yield entry), 30% stocks (SMH/MOAT/TSLA) 
  • reduce expenses for investments - target 2k expense per month
Wish me luck for this year!! 

Monday, April 4, 2022

Escape Velocity of Wealth

I am not sure how to put it across, but the feeling that no matter how much my income increased over the years, I just don't feel that I got wealthier , or my purchasing power increased. Living in one of the most expensive and economically competitive city states in the world doesnt help either. The sick feeling that you just got a bump in earnings due to promotion, then everything that you wanted to buy seems to go up in prices alongside with your increased earning power. I known for a long term life is about bell-curving and just like investing one would need to beat the bellcurve to "feel rich" or in this case "escape velocity". FIRE is actually just escape velocity in terms of wealth/assets + income/FCF / basket of goods you want to spend on. 
I am just gonna pin my thought in point form and hopefully one day I managed to consolidate it into something more coherent (and with a plan) soon. 

Factors that would affect escape velocity of money .. in no particular order of significance / importance: 
  • Hard Asset: (existing assets, income per annum, current age)
  • Soft Asset: (family knowledge, individual skill / alpha, tenacity)
  • External factors: (workforce competition, foreign capital influx, capitalist environment, upward social mobility, pro-biz regulations) 
Escape Velocity defined as being 1) immune/hedge or even benefit from price fluctuations/inflations of goods & services in your personal basket. 2) yearly networth growth above global growth 3) without active income.

rough sense tells me that for year 2022 one would at least require SGD200,000 - SGD300,000 per annum to feel the compounding effects and still be able to live feeling "rich" or above median. But this is based on my POV as a peasant, it will be an evolving answer. 


Understanding Beta, Std Dev, Sharpe Ratios

Saw an interesting youtube video today on some technical analysis tools and decide to do some further reading.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCT_XwOi0ME&t=881s

While I knew about beta long ago, I had only used it sparingly. My broker does not provide much technical details and analytical tools so I might consider using a better brokerage soon like Interactive Brokers. 

So far after fiddling for a few hours I have managed to sort out the beta part of my portfolio's data. 

At a Beta of 1.42 and breaking even with the SPY ytd, it seems that I might be having more volatility for little to no difference in return. 

I have not calculated sharpe ratio and std devs (almost impossible to get the accurate figures as I am not using a good brokerage. 

*edit - from March 25 (few days since i drafted this post) the market rallied strongly led by big tech again. My returns in this small rally does beat SPY. So beta does affect somethings, i just need to consciously make better decisions in future with this new knowledge as one of my screening tools.


Sunday, February 13, 2022

Where do you want to be in 10 years time? 0.9 vs 1.1

Recently I managed to chance upon a podcast [ 徐御 切入点】on randomly on Spotify. One episode covered the topic of turning 30s / 40s and touch on the anxiety, uncertainty people have especially when the goals they had internally does not align with their current circumstances. Usually these goals are financial in nature or the dream to have a more luxurious life. 

Several points on covered struck me. Like anxiety in your late 20s when the path financially forward is fraught with unknowns. How hopeless young adults feel when they realized they may never be able to afford the lifestyle they project. The podcast also encourage listeners to strive for their goal or at least try, otherwise they may regret not trying in the future.

I recalled I was the guy in his late 20s, merge salary with a glass ceiling in my industry and organization. I did not even have a degree and in a society where paper qualifications still matters, its akin to a death sentence. I took steps to try turn things around, night classes, combined with learning how to make my dollar stretch by picking up investing. I also worked harder at the office to show my abilities (dumb). 
Since then, about 10 years had passed, and I am proud to say that while I'm not the hardest worker or one who would sacrifice all time and effort to the betterment of (mainly financial) goals, I am satisfied with the effort and results: 
  1. I doubled my pay and seen that my glass ceiling had been raised, (lets face it you cant really remove glass ceilings) 
  2. Picked up really useful skills in financial literacy (still learning)
  3. Improved in articulation and thought process from reading more
  4. Managed to save up and purchased a lovely home with 
  5. My wife
Not the greatest of achievements like 100x from identifying the right cryptos, or getting hold of a prestigious landed freehold property in the sunny island I reside, but it will do for now. 

10 years later and I face a similar situation: Late 20s me was thinking of making more money to catch up, settling down in the traditional sense, having some financial security. The late 30s me is thinking of rising up in social economical ladder (my goal is to hit top 10-15%, achieving some self-actualization goals (play volin/start a biz/ buy a sport car), and most importantly having Financial Independence. 

The podcast also covered things about the circles of the rich and how even amongst the seemingly rich, they do demarcate amongst themselves (example: a professional like a lawyer is lower in status than a business owner. Or both equally rich families but one is via lottery or crypto while the other is old money with certain level of sophistication: nouve rich vs old money). I'm not really interested in stuff like these, these are just like the ancient golf courses around the world, and the local country club nonsense. I'd really be satisfied if I hit my personal FI number and buy the toys I want. Retaining certain level of low profile is key to having peace. 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Recently, I seem to lose a slight bit of the drive at work. Not sure if it is due to the changes in my work environment or the fact that I know progression will slow down (I'm lazy guy by nature, subscribes to 80:20 logic) 

My primary effort is currently in financial literacy, portfolio risk management, and functional health. I want to maintain my fitness for as long as I can. 

Here's wishing myself for a better "next 10" 
Hit my FI number by 45 
Maintain fitness level until 48! 
Learn something completely new
Travel to 5 new countries 

End with a quote: The difference between 0.9 and 1.1 is not 0.2. It is 2.59 - 0.34 = 2.24 that is the gap after power of ^10. 


Each little step you take beyond / below effort of 1 (neutral/average) is significant. It will impact your life 10 years later!!!


Saturday, January 22, 2022

Rough Start to the Year lol

What a start for the first month of 2022. While I consciously made the decision not to sell my stake in any of the existing holdings the drop still does not make me feel any better. Due to the portfolio tilt to tech and cryptos there is a strong co-relation to the decline.

  • Nasdaq100 (QQQ): -12.45%
  • S&P500 (SPY): - 8.32%
  • Harlequin Portfolio: - 11.71%
Lost to SPY by 3.39%. Damn and its only first month of the year 2022.

Funny thing is that I was close to considering taking some profits off (but missing absolute peak) for APPL at around 175-180, TSLA at around 1100-1150, SMH at around 300-310. Maybe it is greed, I feared missing out.  But then again part of me thought about it and believed that the macro fundamental trends should be aligned to these counters. Why sell when the goal is to accumulate more? if I sold, when would be a good price / time to re-enter? 

I chose to take no action, contrary how I managed 2020 March and 2020 Oct events (sold >50% and re-position) I choose to hunker down and just accumulate reits (neglected for some time) while they are cheaper. The goal this year is to increase my dividend portfolio to 100k, and to reach 350k in total size. Seems tough now due to the drop, but $TSLA and $BTC will always surprise people. 

Fed tightening always cause some form of taper tantrum and this may be an opportunity to pick up some really good companies at decent prices. Not sure about US market but the last time that happened some reits got sold down really bad only to rise above in both DPU and share price just couple years later.

My only worry is how is US gonna tame inflation. and if it fails to do so, what is the backup plan? BTC? Property? Checked. First month of inaction: checked 

as they say, in investing, if you dont know what to do, dont do anything. if it aint broke, dont fix it.
 

Sunday, November 28, 2021

November Again

  • I think sometimes I have unrealistic expectations. 
  • I got to learn to be contented
  • I am not getting younger and should start being more health conscious 
  • The best people you get to know are the ones you met when young

Gotta try work on the above for my next year.

  • I miss those 8 hour marathons which i used to do...but im prob too old for that now
  • I realized that while i can act like a normie, quite often I wanted to go crazy and act like I'm 12.
  • I probably should yolo while the first letter is still "y" 
  • I love being truthful and sarcastic 
Gotta try control my urges for the 2nd list. 

I dont really use to care about birthdays until maybe 23 when I hang out often with friends who actually celebrated birthdays (ahh the joys of having a wholesome family). 

I want  a good pair of legs for basketball
I want find someone on the same wavelength to act retarded
I want to get richer (double my networth)
I just want to disappear and reset back to when I was 14 and do it all over again
my 3 wishes for this year's birthday. hahah probably no3 is the easiest to achieve. 

Hitting 40 and the state of mind

Just hit my 40th birthday recently and I really felt "it" Body's taking longer to recover  Mind's getting less sharp at ti...