Rough Start to the Year lol

What a start for the first month of 2022. While I consciously made the decision not to sell my stake in any of the existing holdings the drop still does not make me feel any better. Due to the portfolio tilt to tech and cryptos there is a strong co-relation to the decline.

• Nasdaq100 (QQQ): -12.45%
• S&P500 (SPY): - 8.32%
• Harlequin Portfolio: - 11.71%

Lost to SPY by 3.39%. Damn and its only first month of the year 2022.

Funny thing is that I was close to considering taking some profits off (but missing absolute peak) for APPL at around 175-180, TSLA at around 1100-1150, SMH at around 300-310. Maybe it is greed, I feared missing out.  But then again part of me thought about it and believed that the macro fundamental trends should be aligned to these counters. Why sell when the goal is to accumulate more? if I sold, when would be a good price / time to re-enter? 

I chose to take no action, contrary how I managed 2020 March and 2020 Oct events (sold >50% and re-position) I choose to hunker down and just accumulate reits (neglected for some time) while they are cheaper. The goal this year is to increase my dividend portfolio to 100k, and to reach 350k in total size. Seems tough now due to the drop, but $TSLA and $BTC will always surprise people. 

Fed tightening always cause some form of taper tantrum and this may be an opportunity to pick up some really good companies at decent prices. Not sure about US market but the last time that happened some reits got sold down really bad only to rise above in both DPU and share price just couple years later.

My only worry is how is US gonna tame inflation. and if it fails to do so, what is the backup plan? BTC? Property? Checked. First month of inaction: checked 

as they say, in investing, if you dont know what to do, dont do anything. if it aint broke, dont fix it.

 

November Again

• I think sometimes I have unrealistic expectations. 
• I got to learn to be contented
• I am not getting younger and should start being more health conscious 
• The best people you get to know are the ones you met when young

Gotta try work on the above for my next year.

• I miss those 8 hour marathons which i used to do...but im prob too old for that now
• I realized that while i can act like a normie, quite often I wanted to go crazy and act like I'm 12.
• I probably should yolo while the first letter is still "y" 
• I love being truthful and sarcastic 

Gotta try control my urges for the 2nd list. 

I dont really use to care about birthdays until maybe 23 when I hang out often with friends who actually celebrated birthdays (ahh the joys of having a wholesome family). 

I want  a good pair of legs for basketball
I want find someone on the same wavelength to act retarded
I want to get richer (double my networth)
I just want to disappear and reset back to when I was 14 and do it all over again

my 3 wishes for this year's birthday. hahah probably no3 is the easiest to achieve. 

August - Busy at work, missing social life

The end of July and the foreseeable majority of August is gonna be busy month for me. Due to the delays caused by covid-19 in 2020, I ended up having to schedule most of my work in the July-Sept period and that is just causing so much pain whenever the government made sudden changes in policies for covid situations. 

I still have leaves from 2020 to clear and usually I would save them for overseas trip but this year it looks like either going on a cruise or staycation would be it. Perhaps this would be a great time to read a book, which is something I have not done for over 1 year. Seems like the longer WFH I am the less concentration I can muster. 

The missus and I are into getting more greens and salads for our daily meals to try keep our health in check. Age is definitely catching up and the sedentary lifestyle of WFH + reduced social settings just struck me really bad. I miss the basketball sessions, covid just changed how people interact. Another key reason is that our group is getting older and most of the guys arent as keen to play basketball anymore. 

Gym's closed/ heavily restricted too. 

Cycling paths are tight and unlike overseas there is no beautiful sceneries at all. 

Pubs Closed. Argh. 

Lets just hope things get back to normal soon.  

A Plan for 45 - Part 2

So the first half of 2021 has ended and things seem to be coming back to normal, (baby steps) with the vaccines, and new regulations and companies learning to cope more with working online etc. The ivnestment market has shaken off its March fears of inflation / rising rates / tech bubble and there was a sustained performance by all three major indices in US markets in June. 

That brings the overall portfolio back to a more respectable level but I am still lagging the S&P 500 performance due to BTC exposure other tech names. 

The S&P and Nasdaq have both repeatedly broke ATH after ATHs. I was just thinking about taking some profits for some value plays and in-the-profits-but-corrected some tech to prepare cash for the inevitable correction, and it seems that majority of the analysts surveyed by CNBC seem to feel that there is a correction too. 

Not an expert but if something hits ATH, its better to stop putting in new money and have maybe some cash. Not selling anything either, but just don't go full retard and buy all in. 

Seems that BigTech (FAANG+M), Banks (XLF), and Energy (XLE) are the preferred plays this 2h2021. 

I have not done any changes to portfolio except selling some BEP and getting into KDC after it corrected but that is more of a regular yield optimization play. 

Glad I bought some MSFT - enjoyed a nice little run. 

Edit: Bought a little bit more of QYLD, I am treating this a a place to park cash, should things turn i will divert funds from here to get cheap beaten up stocks on my watchlist. 

Action to take, 

1. continue Take Profit to hit 15% -20% cash (now at 10%)
2. Buy on weakness FAANGM stocks 
3. Watchout for banks stocks, XLF / IPAY to certain extend

A Plan for 45 - Part 1

To be accountable, one needs to set goals and targets. 

So I would set the following general targets:

• Ability to retire or at reach a point where my income from non-work equates to $50,000 
• Own a "fun car" - yes two door sports coupes, no, it does not need to be crazy supercars (idm though)
• Fitness - At the very least able to maintain IPPT gold standards and keep bodyfat to 15% or less
• time to play basketball regularly 
• meet new people and read up new knowledge
• Stretch goal - move my furkids to a larger home where they get their own room. 

The above requires free TIME and that in itself requires MONEY to replace the WORK require to gain momentary freedom.

***********************************

Ok serious stuff. 

I am hitting 200k for my equities portfolio. Around 30% is allocated in dividend stocks and I think it serves to provide some income (dividend roots) and peace of mind. 50% in US stocks and etf comprising usual growth and tech stuff. Remainder is cash (Market ATH)  of around 15%.  

• I intend to dial back from equities investing once it reaches 200k. I will still invest, but at much lower rate
• Identify any investing opportunities and plonk sizable sums of $15,000 to $30,000 (this can be in anything from cryptos to MTG cards to collectible NFTs to business opportunities) 
• Slowly, during the course of the next 1-2 years allocate 10-15% (to be confirmed) of my total non residence networth into crypto as a form of hedge as protection. I have seen what happens in 2008-10 where all the prices soared and people were priced out of the markets from properties that doubled in few years. 
• Using my collection of Magic the Gathering cards as capital I shall also convert their value to cryptos. I will forever miss these babies but I cannot preserve their condition well due to the humid climate and lack of care and I no longer play. They do deserve to see some playlight all these legacy goodness. This will give me capital to rotate without risking new capital if BTC fails to hold its value. 
• Yearly capital injection to investing will target minimum $40,000 (up from $35,000) . I know this is peanuts to most people who are serious about FIRE but I prefer to live a little.

Short term wise, continue to accumulate cash for correction. Watch out for fed rates sudden hikes (unlikely) and BTFD whenever cryptos have a correction. 

Lets look back in few months' time!!

A Plan For 45 - Introduction

I turn 37 this year (2021) and I am currently a salaried employee in a (by public perception) comfortable though not glamourous (nor high income) job. 

I have worked for almost 15 years across several types of jobs but mainly in the professional development and adult learning areas. During my mid-twenties I had picked up investing via friend of mine as a way to boost income. My salary was considered below median for my age group back then in the country. measly $50,000 annual pay cheque for a 27 year old wasnt gonna cut it. 

Although not much by professional standards I have since dabbled in stocks, bonds and generally retail stuff for close to 10 years. It was not until 2 years ago that I started to develop a thirst for knowledge, partly after some chats with a friend who worked in an investment firm. I started to learn and try to incorporate concepts rather than "chase hot stocks" or "being a yield whore" Over the period and ongoing still, I am trying my best to incorporate the following into my decisions whenever I value an investment opportunity: 

• Portfolio allocation
• Risk management
• Recognizing the difference in retail vs institution (and making use of that advantage) 
• Country bias and advantages 

To that I would say that I did have some success in achieving risk adjusted returns. And thankfully, the last few years had been absolute blast for investors in general. 

Looking back at the opportunities that i missed and mistakes i made, i think the following struck: 

• Lack of due diligence which results in low conviction
• Fear of loss - could be due to the fact my savings were low and my humble family background 
• Both risk aversion and loss aversion resulted in selling winners and holding losers  
• But the worst was missing out epic opportunities when risk:reward ratio is so skewed due to above 3 mindset  

As I age toward 40s I realized time is precious (oh my basketball knees) and i do not want to spend precious moments slogging in the office. I do not mind having a job that I truly enjoy, either great work environment or meaningful / fun stuff. Time can be better spent maintaining fitness, with people I enjoy being around and playing games or watching anime. 

It is also opportune, that at this juncture in life, I feel that I have "stabilized" and could afford to take some risk. My total assets minus residence is now reaching half mil. The amount of capital that is required for life altering impact should any investment fail to work out is no longer significant to destroy what I have already established. I have also allocated enough cash locked in at 2.5% yield as backup for 5 years worth of my mortgage. All in all, so long I do not go "full retard" I can comfortably retire with a fully paid home by 55 (but fuck that) 

I will describe and log the plans for my own accountability so that I have no regrets when I reach there in 8 years time.

Summary for Jan and Feb 2021

The year of 2021 continued the uptrend as tech stocks led the charge up. At one point my portfolio were up 21% by mid January. Since the addition of stocks in Oct - late Nov, I realized that the market is going up at a way faster pace than I could keep up. So I have stuck with my main holdings and periodically added in small volumes for my three ETFS: SMH/ARKK/MOAT. 

Not feeling comfortable risking additional capital, while feeling the need to still churn returns, I turned to allocating 5% of my total portfolio to trade SPACs/hot stocks. The rules are simple, find the next hot thing and buy, hold until 30-50% profit or when story cools off and sell. Cut loss if momentum shifts. 

Profitable trades includes: $PLTR, $AQB, $IPOE, $SPCE, $PSTH... Losses includes; $ACTC & $XNET (due to feb sudden drop) 

That was the summary of January 2021.

Feb was a very different story, rising short term 10yr US treasuries caused (+0.6% in 4-5month iirc) caused selldown of long dated assets. Heavy on growth and tech my portfolio retraced to mere +10.7% as of 28 Feb. 

Held on to all my shares, sold all SPACs/ Speculative positions. Bought more MOAT.L. opened position in $ETN, $MSFT. I am thinking if I should rotate from the last two short term plays of $TTCF and $STIC (bought late Jan/ Early Feb) to get some discounted $APPL 

Despite many people rotating to traditional beneficary like Banks/industrials/O&G stocks, traditionally I dislike these sectors. I prefered semicons/properties(esp reits or high yielding ones), more recently innovation related counter which i see a real shift in behavior and usage, especially obvious after COVID struck. 

Plans for March 

Gunpowder is at ~20% which should allow some adjustments and purchases. If interest goes up and general market is recovering then it should bode well within the year.  That said there might be a fiercer correction vs what I expect so I am not naïve to place more capital without seeing a 10% drop (DOW/SPY/QQQ YTD still up >2+%). 

Highly possible I will be rotating money to high value blue chip and FANNGs for stable long term growth and recovery. $APPL at $120 seems like worth starting a position.