Its been sometime since I last blog. 6 months to be exact. There isn't much to talk about, and I was kinda busy.

I think I am developing old man vision. Eyes start to get tired easily these days. There is always a feeling of sleepiness after 1am. Thirties is really a bitch.

After a period of uneventful July to October, we reached the November.
Trump got elected after the USA presidential elections. Its against the conventional wisdom of all the analysts and experts. Which lead to a short 1 day mini sell down, stocks picked up right after.
Thereafter it has been weak mainly due to prolong uncertainty of the Fed's decision to raise I/R for upcoming December's meeting. Personally I seen a huge drop in my holdings for mine is a dividend heavy portfolio.

One of the lesson I had learnt is not to trust "experts" they are human too and made mistakes.

Locally the government's initiative to push for 4th telco coupled with impeding rising rates and trump's rejection of TPP, has cause big sell down for all three telcos. Funds selling to invest in US, retailers dumping due to the impending 4th telco, and banks and brokers have been issuing serious sell calls.

I sold some starhub and m1 earlier in September. I am still holding on 1 lot of each. bad news. bad decision. Double whammy of trying to reallocate funds in what I perceived as the most stable telco Singtel. Alas I should have waited for a better entry price.

Overall portfolio down by 6.5% as of year to date. I wonder if I should sell both and book my losses.
inclusive of dividends I will still record minor gain of +2%

It is my weakness not able to capture the right time to sell. Maybe it is time to brush up on this area.

Stock to watch currently.
I shall focus on dividends from companies that are less noticeable by funds and BBs. Less volatility.
Funds that receive profits in USD shall also be interesting.
ALso look out for companies which does it business in overseas, providing natural hedge against SG bad economy.

Sunningdale tech/ Venture corp/ HC surgicals/ UMS holdings/ Sheng Siong/ Jumbo/ CapitaRetailChinaTrust/ starhill global

Shall observe to see if my analysis is right.

I made an effort to cut down on buying dividend stocks due to the macro conditions and also due to the need for cash in the short-term for my apartment's down payment. Dividend bearing stocks (higher yield ones especially) then to have their prices stay stagnant or dip relative to interest rate rises and other related reasons. If you need the money in say 2-3 years' time a growth stock that allows quick gains may be the better choice. Of course, I did not sell all of my dividend stocks. A large portion of my portfolio is still dividend. I am aiming to change my portfolio from 100% dividend stocks to a 70:30 (div:growth) ratio. This should amplify my returns a fair bit.


Now I am predicting that auntie yellen will not push the rates up too high due to the weak economy outlook in the states. However I do foresee generally weakness in the global economy. Which may/would lead to lower rates but QE has been done by various countries to varying degrees of success. I don't think that is the method the administrators are going to use.


I do hope the Singapore (property) market continues to weaken so that I can spend less when my turn to purchase comes. I do think it is slightly overpriced now.


Strategies for June and July will be to keep itchy fingers from buying anymore dividend stocks and accumulating investible cash for the upcoming Fullerton IPO.

So recently I have begun to appreciate having my mornings sane on weekends. I have more time to ponder over various things and in addition, get to have an extra meal ^^


I went with the missus to find some traditional breakfast food and to our disappointment one of the business owners told us that that particular food is lost. As in no one's selling it in Singapore anymore.


The other place I could think of eating it is in Taiwan.


Maybe I should go get myself some friends and go on a Taiwan food trip.

I was not really feeling that keen to write a blog post because there's nothing much new.
However that changed as there is simply too much noise and opinions , plus new distractions.


This post will serve as a reminder to myself by the end of the year 2016.


First things first, we have this P2P lending thingy and tbh I was kinda sold (enough for me to create accounts for two of the P2P lenders) Interestingly, what I realised was that how fast these loans get sub out.

Within MINUTES



a friend of mine said that many singaporeans hoard tons of disposable cash and he believes that the usual person you see on the street in our 25-35 age group has about 100k to 200k disposable cash. I hope not, because that is kinda doesnt make sense. Espcially if everyone is crying how expensive 100k cars and 600k hdb flats are.


I do believe however, singaporeans are less keen to use the SGX as a means for investing income as compared to riskier vehicles such as p2p lending/junk bonds(think 2008) and starting a business. Was it because of the 1997 and 2008 crisis? I have no way to find out within my social circle.




Next up is the noise.. friends have been trading furiously, except one. He is earning quite decently and cash savings + dividend portfolio suits him most. (oso lazy) I did my sums and sad to say i cannot ride the trading waves in such a bear market as well , due to reasons such as pending MOP and needing a hefty 55-60k CASH to clear my debts. A potential wedding and etc will set me back at least by another 30k even if the other half chips in significantly. 


Since im bull on property and i believe its fundamentals are very good in SIngapore I am sticking to my guns to just hold and save up.




ACTIONS to take:


Hence in the 2nd half of th year i will:


1) Continue to accumulate quality blue and large cap that has been battered.
2) Stick to dividend portfolio policies but reduce %.
3) Sell high debt level counters gradually - Croesus and OUE C-Reit (reducing their position)
4) Buy into a bit of growth to balance- Dividend are gonna be down in this environment due to lower earnings from stable companies, however new companies and s-chip being not at peak of their potentials can still record above market results and thus rise in share price - drawback is there is usually little to no yield for such counters - Target to position 10-15% monies on growth while
5) Maintaining total portfolio yield at 6% or optimistically 6.5%
6) Hold cash of 10k for unique opportunities - Fullerton Health IPO
7) Diversification to all sectors - as above - 1st entry to healthcare
8) Decide what to do with P2P funds of 1k- not alot but just do something ? thing is Im so busy i missed 3 opportunities to sign up before they got all subsribed - SERIOUSLY singaporeans?


Key thing to remember - blue chips and good dividend counters are only high yield when you buy them EARLY (just ipo) or if you missed it, during bad times such as feb 2016. There is no high yielding low risk low debt stocks. There must be a reason behind it.

Its been some time since I wrote anything. I am having new stuff at work and on top of that dating someone. I wonder if I had a change in my mentality since last year, I am more comfortable with myself. I'm able to watch movies , dine and drink all alone and infact I Prefer to be alone at times.. was it due to work? I am so busy these days that I just cant be bother to start a conversation.

There is a rather significant dip earlier this year on the STI .. thot I might as well blog about it. The thing is fast forward it to the end of march and the STI has pretty much recovered back from 2500 to 2800 (not bad) . It isn't everything (was about 3k range) and it has chances of falling. But the key in investing is that one should always be calm and objective. Crisis provide us with good buy-in opportunities and we should not panic unless we need cash urgently.

But if you needed cash urgently , then why are you using that sum of money for investments?

feeling old these months, i think it is partly work  - i have been focusing more on getting my job done and reducing mistakes at work. And I have not been at it for my leg physio,...seems like my legs need regular training to keep up at this age range.

Recently there was a selldown on STI and I completely missed it as I have previously bought some already and thus ran out of bullets. It was a good lesson to me to stick to my investing plans that i have drafted and not deviated despite people around me making money. I could have average down for a few more counters had I resisted the temptations.

Tmr i shall go gym to work on my knees.. haha

Retrospective

If I could do it over, I would do it differently - says the old man to the young chap.